Such a state encourages a trough in the western part of North America (similar to last year). The strong jet in the northeast Pacific has been fueled by the combination of the ridge northeast of Hawaii and the trough in the Gulf of Alaska. This combination is shown to break down however after the 12th and give way to a ridge which will cover much of the Northeast Pacific. Second, theoretical and modeling studies of the effects of global warming on hurricanes and tropical storms have determined that there will be no increase in the frequency of weaker hurricanes under global warming. If you are in Vegas and you want the South Rim, I recommend you take the airplane tour that gets you there in less than 60 minutes. Persistent Psychics like Ganeshji are trained with energies and tactics to deal with such issues. It’s not the bath like water of the tropics but still warm enough to enjoy! Enough of that though. The index used to measure the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) remains very negative.

The Pacific-North American (PNA) index is making a run into positive territory while the North Atlantic Oscillation appears to want to throw an all out negative-state bash. Rugged, durable and flexible, the North Face Men’s Nuptse Bootie III provides just that. Cooling has also taken place across the north central and northwest Pacific, but that is another post in itself. With the aforementioned extreme instability, tornadoes are very possible with the initial cells that form Monday afternoon out in Iowa and northwest Illinois, prior to coagulation into a cluster of thunderstorms. We also see a stationary front draped across Nebraska, Iowa, and Wisconsin, which is the focus of some early-day convection in northwest Iowa per this forecast graphic. We see a swath of 4000 j/kg CAPE (convective available potential energy) stretching from Oklahoma to Illinois, with a pocket of 5000 j/kg CAPE existing in south-central Iowa and northern Missouri, likely the initialization point of Monday’s convection.

Inserting the load, collector performance numbers, collector area, and storage gallons into the F-Chart program produces a table of energy values. It has lagged the 30-year average through the entire month of October and although making a half-hearted comeback in November, still lags the normal build-up of snow in the northern hemisphere in autumn. It should be noted that the build-up of ice in the Arctic has been faster than last year. The one exception is the state of the ENSO; which, when compared to last year is running much closer to average. Completely ignoring the current state of affairs and all the early snow, my favorite early season indicators appear to be very similar to last year. With the lack of a strong southeast ridge, I would expect the storm track to be further south and the weather pattern to resemble the current one for long stretches of the winter (more on that later).

Better yet, we appear to be locked in to a very favorable teleconnection induced long-wave pattern. Competition forces each company to make a better product since bad or old products die off in the market. Much of the day Friday will feature high clouds and there could be some light snow for a period which stems from the rush of milder temperatures which will try to make the push into Vermont. As a consequence, I will refer to this image later on in this post, as opposed to the first image. In fact, they may soon become the first pair of footwear you reach for due to the great fit they offer. I was stuck off at a desk, away from the action, and told to answer phone calls as best I could – what a strange and exciting first day of work. They should work against their tendency to reject advice from anyone but themselves. Still, a split in the jet stream should ensure that the threat of record breaking warmth (of a multi-day variety) only lasts for a week (next week). From there, a potentially dangerous damaging wind threat may be expected to evolve. These dynamic wind fields then create ample wind shear, a necessary ingredient for tornadoes.

This stems from a very dynamic wind field in the upper, middle, and lower levels of the atmosphere, thanks in part to the dominant upper level low in southern Canada. This years temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are closer to average, a sharp contrast to last year where clearly La Nina was clearly establishing itself as an early and dominant force on the weather. The mild weather next week will flood all of New England next week like the rush of water from a broken dam. However, the main concern here is if the morning MCS over Illinois will limit convection later in the day due to the MCS-associated cloud cover. The pattern over the past few weeks is relatively blocked at high latitudes while cold in many of the important middle latitudes including both in Europe and in the eastern United States. This is hardly an ideal pattern since this long wave configuration still places much of the more unsettled weather (snow) in the Rocky Mountains.