The 500 millibar forecast on the right signals the presence of elongated high pressure across the Eastern Seaboard into the Canadian Maritimes. I find that this is likely to be a good indicator for temperatures in the May forecast. For this post, we will be using the European model and ensemble forecast out of consistency for this storm. The entire eastern US should eventually average out to average or slightly above average temperatures, but I am not going to rule out the potential for a big heat wave that rings average temperatures well above normal. These temperatures may have been significantly raised due to the massive heat wave experienced in March, so that possibility will be taken into account in the May outlook. Leading groups, such as the UKMET Office, have already moved to a unified approach. Such strategic planning and inclusive development would be a very different approach than NOAA has done in the past. I am expecting cooler temperatures in the far northern Plains as well as the West Coast based on past below average temperatures in those areas. Moving over to the men’s tournament it is hard to go past the three time defending champion Rafael Nadal.

Luckily, there will not be a negative NAO this time around. The top half shows forecasts for the Pacific North American index (PNA), which I will explain later, and the bottom half shows the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which I will also show later on. That low is expected to either move north toward the Palmetto State or east over Florida. Recently, the storm track for the US has been centered around storms entering from the Southwest and shifting east into either the Southern Plains or central Plains. In the past, that area moves east with time, and I believe that I will follow history for this one and have indicated that the risk area will be shifting north and east. I try to follow what I’ve written, but I’m not sure I have all bases covered. For that, you need to have a comprehensive view of the entire process including choice of carpet, technician, and continued maintenance.

Another dashed line farther south isn’t something we need to worry about. Ensembles need more resources and thought. Future prediction will be essentially probabilistic at all scales, with ensembles (running models many times with different initial states and physics) being the foundation. The left half of the 4 panel image contains forecasts from the ESRL/PSD forecasting branch, while the right half shows forecasts from the NCEP (essentially the American model and ensembles). Leaders of NOAA (e.g., Kathryn Sullivan) and the Weather Service (Louis Uccellini, Director, and Bill Lapenta, had of NCEP) say they are ready to follow such an approach, and with their support, U.S. The days of one model for global forecasts and another at ultra-high resolution are numbered, if not over all ready. The NWS has generally not given enough emphasis and thought to their ensemble systems, with their size and resolution being insufficient. Modern CPUs often have specialized predictors, e.g., a loop predictor can accurately predict loop branches in cases where a generalized branch predictor couldn’t reasonably store enough history to make perfect predictions for every iteration of the loop.

However, since I don’t have the proper observation tools to see for myself (or the willpower to see if snow will be falling in May), I do not want to comment on that right now. Again, this is all with a lot of uncertainty, this is just what I’m looking at right now. The 12z GFS is now predicting a slightly higher amount of snow for cities like Chicago and Gary, IN for this 12z run. Here’s the latest 12z ECMWF model. American model remains out of touch with current trends, which will be reflected in this post. Shown above is the Hour 72 (times will be expressed in hours for this post. Below is the predicted snow depth for Hour 192- the same timeframe as the ECMWF image above. The blue area is considered the air north of the 540 line, so the separating boundary/540 line is the green/light blue border on the map above. In the example, the ECMWF/GFS are favoring snow for an area versus the GEM model favoring rain for the same area in the same time frame. Example: The ECMWF/GFS models are in the snow camp vs the GEM model in the rain camp.

Sam Vaknin is the author of “Malignant Self Love – Narcissism Revisited” and “After the Rain – How the West Lost the East”. Western Australia is bounded by South Australia and the Northern Territory to the east, and the Indian Ocean to the west and north. European ensembles, forecasting 500 millibar heights. 500 white tigers in the world and almost all of them are in the zoo.The zoo thus serves a definite purpose in a human beings life. A quick background on the European ensembles: They originate from the European model, which is a very accurate model, widely regarded as the best forecasting model in the world at the moment. The National Weather Service made a conservative choice for the core of its new global modeling system, but that is not the end of the world. They have also held back from creating a high-resolution (2-4 km grid spacing) over the US, something recommended by endless National Academy reports and national workshops.