We observed a negatively-tilted storm system hitting Japan this morning, and if you’ve been reading this blog lately, you know that that means we’re in for a storm here in the US in just a few short days. With this negatively tilted storm hitting Japan on April 4th, we’re watching April 10-14 for a storm system in the United States. Down in the Southwest, a low pressure system off the West Coast will influence the chances of precipitation, especially in the California mountain areas in the far north region of the state and coast-side. A potential storm track in the positive PNA is one that goes through the South Plains, which could create severe weather, before shooting north into the Midwest or Ohio Valley. In the Plains, temperatures will be cooler, as the snowpack on the ground influences the cooler air across the region. For the Southcentral US, high pressure will dominate the region as storms move off east.

High blood pressure. – Over-weight. The main threats are isolated tornadoes and high winds. Around the park there are vendors selling food, coffeeshops, and restaurants. Thus, one must be really careful in assuming that any warming there is the result of some kind of greenhouse gas influence. To know how to control something we must first identify what it is. First and foremost, we’re looking at the Pacific driving our pattern to round out December. This of course is fairly typical for most years but the first half of 2012 was so historically warm that the contiguous United States saw the warmest consecutive 12-month period on record. Sustained cold of any kind was nearly extinct and the area around the Great Lakes saw 2 months where temperatures were 3-4 standard deviations above normal in a 4-month period. The city boasts of a rich cultural lifestyle and is buzzing with vibrancy which provides a great attraction for tourists and residents alike. There’s a reason why I keep bringing up the negatively-tilted aspect of this trough in Japan.

Into the Northwest, high pressure will keep the area high and dry. Off in the Southeast, a cold front associated with the low pressure in the Midwest will be slicing into the region. Today, the low pressure system causing the snow and rain in the Midwest and Plains will move off into Canada, leaving mostly sunny skies across much of the region with colder temperatures. Training thunderstorms are taking their toll on the New Orleans, Baton Rouge region this evening as more and more of them ignite. I can tell you, Vermont can certainly feel your pain a little more than one year removed from Irene. The mature storm now produces more vigorous storms, hence why we are concerned more when a negatively tilted trough comes around, compared to a positively-tilted trough. This was followed by an early nor’easter and accumulating snow in some areas that as of now are still recovering.

The excessive warmth and in some areas drought continued through a good part of the summer. High pressure will keep the New Mexico-Arizona areas dry, but lingering clouds are likely from the low pressure. We anticipate these storms to continue forming through at least the 8:30 PM CDT time frame, but with faulty NWS forecasts, we don’t have a good direction of what will happen later on. These storms are moving in a southeast direction and will die off as they go offshore. The positive tilt trough sees the jet stream bending towards the southwest, as the Energy Pocket, also known here as the 500mb maximum vorticity, pushes in that direction. We may expect a negatively-tilted trough here in the US around April 10-14 in response, and there’s a reason why the negative tilt is concerning. Since we might expect a negative trough to impact the US in the April 10-14 timeframe, it’s plausible we also see a decent severe weather event in response to the negative tilt. I’m monitoring the April 10-14 timeframe for some stormy weather.

• There is the potential for a storm system in the US in the April 12-16 timeframe. • Severe weather is a possibility. • Cooler than normal conditions may arrive during this time period. We see the PNA is to be positive during this expected storm system, which does support the idea that this storm will bring along cooler conditions with it. We see the WPO (West Pacific Oscillation) and EPO (East Pacific Oscillation) are both projected to be negative during the April 12-16 time period, adding to the chances that we see cooler weather during this timeframe. While accuracy at this long range timeframe is quite low, the pattern has a decent chance of locking up like this if it verifies 5 days down the road. To a non-professional, the start of this fall portends a colder winter, not a 60% chance of above normal temps. Let’s start with yesterday’s trouble spot, the Midwest. If venture capital angel investors knew exactly which market opportunities were going to be the next big thing they wouldnt need you – they could go start the company themselves.