Looking over more model forecasts, the negative NAO will be nearly evenly distributed among both regions, but the East-based is definitely a favored phase by the time this storm’s timeframe rolls around. You can tell more about coming changes in the weather by observing this weather instrument than any of the other common, basic weather tools. This is how the training cost changes over the epochs. If current forecasts verify, some places may see over 36 hours of continuous snowfall. Fortunately, these concerns are alleviated when looking at other ensemble forecasts near this timeframe. This is the American ensemble forecast, yet again for 9 days away from today. Among the supporters are the American model, the American ensembles, and the Canadian weather prediction system has been known to previously support this idea. What is apparent is that a negative Pacific North American index (PNA) will be present during this timeframe. The West-based negative NAO means that high pressure over Greenland is centered to the west of that land mass, hence west-basednegative NAO. The North Atlantic Oscillation then gets more specific with the West-based and East-based phases.

It will have to be altered to spread further north (just to cover some more of the Plains, that’s all), but I want to see another round of model forecasts before I make a serious change. In the interest of model forecasts and public awareness, I have upgraded the storm title to reflect my current outlook on the situation. I could go on and on about other models and ensembles supporting such a solution, but we need to take a step back and analyze the atmospheric pattern that will be in place when this storm potentially occurs. A Rex Block occurs when high pressure is stacked north of low pressure. Persistent low pressure in the Southwest would finish out the Rex Block. A Rex Block induces a more zonally-oriented (west to east) wind flow that is more favorable for warm temperatures and not big coastal storms. There’s actually more than one thousand varieties of Acacia trees in Australia, so the grain and overall appearance is different, with different furniture made from this wood species.

Readers of this blog are trained to know that one should not look at a single forecast. We do see a pretty solid negative PNA in the forecast by February 21st as shown in the image above. This is very common to see in the long range; the surprising thing is that the ensembles are even showing such a potential this far out. The GFS is showing the potential for a major snow maker for the upper Midwest as well as a possible severe weather event in the Southeast to kick off March. If the storm goes extraordinarily slow, we could see this storm system drop significant amounts of snow for over 24 hours. We see a fair consensus of a negative NAO during the timeframe of this potential storm. The strength of this negative NAO is TBD, but the general idea of a negative NAO is in place. This is the forecast from several global models and ensembles for the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The pieces of energy may start off in the Bering Sea, where persistent low pressure is holding strong in this forecast. Somewhat low confidence is reflected by the broad-ness of the system by the ensembles.

We have to look at many forecasts (an ensemble) to judge our confidence in a prediction. Their support behind this very interesting storm system adds confidence to my prediction for this storm system. This tightened jet stream adds increased energy to disturbances that flow through this jet stream. As they swing out from the Bering Sea, strong high pressure in the Gulf of Alaska tightens the Pacific Jet stream further. Another big southern streamer gets organized early next week and seems destined to explode somewhere along the Atlantic coast and ride north along the frontside of an amplifying east coast jet stream. The negative PNA will set off the storm originally going through the Southern US, but high pressure in the Southeast will try to force it north into the Northern Plains, a common storm track this winter. At bottom is webcam view looking north from campus. The bottom line of all this.