I can see a situation in which weak tornadoes evolve from this set-up, but I do not expect several big tornadoes across the Medium Risk area. Highest risk appears to be placed across Alabama and Georgia in the area of the highest instability. Overall instability is moderate at best, with highest values in the aforementioned areas. In our case, we look to average out in slightly negative AAM values for the month of January. If your not a beach bum and want to be more active, September is a great month to go kayaking and sailing. Why dont we look at the varying types of these vests and see what will look great on you or what will match your preference. For generations of Connecticut families and visitors, Lyman Orchards has been a year-round destination for great food, family fun, and championship golf. Short range model guidance suggests the cold front currently working its way east across the nation will fire off another day’s worth of severe weather.

High Wind index looks to be high for this event, as the typical cold front merging of severe thunderstorms occurs to form a squall line. As far as the South, it’s possible we see some high pressure due to the negative AAM showing a negative correlation there (that equals positive height anomalies: high pressure). If we look at the chart above, we could anticipate seeing unusually cold and stormy weather in the North US, because the positive correlation means a negative AAM produces negative height anomalies. Basically, this chart was constructed by taking January AAM values and looking at the next month’s (February) 500mb height anomalies. But for now, late January and early February are looking wintry across the US. I believe we will see February start out with brutally cold temperatures, as the Bering Sea argues. The firefighters should have been pulled out, something borne out by subsequent analysis (see my previous blog on this).

As I will describe below, I believe that the meteorological guidance for the Twisp fire situation was clear: all firefighters should have been warned/pulled back because of the imminent threat of rapidly increasing winds accompanied by a change of direction. With one of these you are able to walk in to change their food and water. What good is knowing the future if you can’t change it? At 12:30 PM, the general winds are starting to shift to the west, and not much is found over the future incident site. But can we predict the future gadgets? Lots of money is poured into installing these sets and valuable inputs from the meteorologist on the set can prevent loss of money and time. The time of the incident is not clear in the press, but initial reports of the accident appeared between 5 and 6 PM on Twitter. I assume the timing of the incident is between 3 and 4:30 PM.

If someone has better timing I would like to know it. Want to know what is in store for you in 2019? You just have to prepare yourself so that you’ll know what to do with your pet when winter comes. I have relatively high confidence in this cold really hitting the US hard to open February. My research repeatedly uncovers that the huge majority of the best employees worked while in high school. I’m going to stay with my current thinking on the graphic above; I feel that the graphic best interprets my thinking right now. Let’s begin by comparing the most powerful weather prediction computers used by various countries around the world (see graphic below). The SPC is discussing the presence of a corridor of instability aligned just east of a dryline set up along the western Central Plains, and it is this corridor of instability that is outlined in the graphic above.

I don’t think we would see that significant of ridging in the South, mainly because the other parts of the pattern support much of the East being chilly, not just the Northeast. As any stratospheric influences begin to affect the US, we may or may not see enhanced cold weather- it will depend on the synoptic pattern around North America that will dictate where the core of the cold will go. As in elementary I saw the rise of text speech, now in high school I am starting to see the decline. If the AAM in January was positive, one could expect high pressure in Canada and the Northern US because there are positive correlation values shown. In the same sense, if the AAM were positive in January, February 500mb anomalies would ne negative, due to the negative correlation shown in the Southern US. This strand of slightly cooler than normal temperature anomalies dissipated by late March, bringing an end to whatever slight La Nina (colder than normal sea surface temperatures) may have otherwise developed. Anyhow, these ensemble members are showing a varied landfall anywhere from Houston, Texas to the end of the Florida Panhandle.