However, should it survive that bout, and low shearing holds up over the 10 degree north line, I believe additional development for the disturbance is likely. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORETASTED TO INTENSIFY MORE AS IT TRACKS UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT AND ALL DAY TOMORROW. Another possibility is that the system is pushed north and is thrown into the massive high pressure system holding an iron grip over mich of the Atlantic. This nearly confirmed the possibility that this tornadic supercell had struck Tupelo, producing significant damage. This supercell was exhibiting a tornado debris signature (TDS) at the time it struck Tupelo, indicating that a tornado was already on the ground and doing damage. This development, combined with further analysis which detailed a more specific track, eventually led to the realization that this tornado had directly hit the city of Tupelo, Mississippi. At approximately 2:44 PM Central Time/3:44 PM Eastern Time, radar indicated a supercell with a defined hook echo signature located in the immediate vicinity of Tupelo, as indicated above. The already-dynamic environment, which later warranted a rare ‘High Risk’ of severe weather designation by the Storm Prediction Center, provided a sustaining mechanism for this tornadic supercell which eventually did strike Tupelo.

At approximately 2:54 PM Central Time, or 3:54 PM Eastern Time, the supercell had now moved past Tupelo. According to the governor of Mississippi, 131 homes and numerous businesses had been damaged in Tupelo as a result of this tornado. This high pressure system would either result in an East Coast threat or throwing the disturbance out to sea. Dozens of injuries were reported as a result of this storm, but none were told as life-threatening. This is why you should clean your air filters each month in the summer. For example, Accuweather, the well known weather forecasting firm, started to provide 45-day forecasts this summer (see graphic). This is a well done guide. Additionally, incoming sudden stratospheric warmings appear in the cards, meaning the cold weather would only be reinforced. The incoming solar radiation was just what we’d expect (above), as was the temperature (just below). I want to take a moment now and talk about the stratosphere and how the models have been having trouble with the incoming cold pattern. When looking at a correlation coefficient (CC) chart above, one would want to observe values below 0.800 or so (seen as blues on this chart) to identify a potential debris ball.

This is basic layman’s forecasting for you and is especially useful if you want to plan certain events or occasions like trips or weddings. Nowadays, more and more people like to wear a down jacket in winter to keep them from cold weather. I’ve no idea what only said Lodo but certainly it’s appearing like a busted play for that home side.Those chuck n’ duck hand grenades sure consist of a wholesome method. Note that the negative NAO now has the ridge centered west of Greenland, inducing west-based negative NAO conditions that would enhance potential for cold and storms in that region. However, when we are going on a trip to one of these interesting areas with a car, or we just live there, we must think how to fit in those weather conditions. The models already have many issues forecasting here at the troposphere, and thus are bound to have many more problems forecasting conditions tens of thousands of feet up in the air. Many people get sick when exposed to air that may be too cold or too warm. • Long-tracked, violent tornadoes may occur on either of those days.

In these dryline situations, it is not uncommon to see isolated storm cells fire up, which then enhance the likelihood of tornadoes and overall elevated severe weather. The SPC is discussing the presence of a corridor of instability aligned just east of a dryline set up along the western Central Plains, and it is this corridor of instability that is outlined in the graphic above. This steering layer wind map represents possible motions for storm systems with central pressures at or above 1000 mb. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined an area of enhanced severe weather potential on April 23rd, as the severe weather season finally begins to show signs of activity. If enough individualized storm cells form, the cells can congeal into a nasty squall line, or may just remain as individualized cells, which would maintain a raised tornado threat. A disturbance is moving off Africa this morning that may eventually produce a threat to the Caribbean islands.