In the Input box, enter PNR Number. For a number of locations, this will be the greatest rain event in years. Great weather will follow this rain storm with temps moderating into the upper 50’s and possibly the mid 60’s by the weekend. All things considered, Vermont ski country managed to do decently well this holiday weekend. Temperatures will remain well above average and in many areas, above freezing Thursday but will finally cool into the 20’s Thursday night thanks to a clear sky and calm winds. Over the past 30 days, mean heights have indicated the presence of a ridge of high pressure over much of the country, meaning warm temperatures for that area. Most notably is a very strong low pressure system being forced south into central Canada, and spreading an autumnal chill through the north central and north east regions of the US. Most importantly, models are concurring that it tracks up through the central or eastern Great Lakes.

Vermont will certainly enjoy plenty of green through the warm months that lay ahead and can reminisce about the great ski season that is now behind us. At Mad River glen, the cold weather never reached a level we would consider “intense” and although the winter was free of large scale “thaws” temperatures averaged above normal for the season. MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. 2. The tornado threat looms a bit larger over the Plains. Writing in the journal Earth and Planetary Science Letters earlier this year, an international team of researchers said a temperature increase of 100 degrees Fahrenheit or more could, over a few million years, shut down the Earth’s plate tectonics. A cold front will put an end to the spring extravaganza Wednesday night and will bring a few showers to the region as it does so, though heavy rain is not expected.

The event will be short-lived, but a few good bursts of snow should provide 1-4 inches of wind driven snow to the high country around the MRV and possibly a bit more from Stowe northward to the Canadian border. Keep up the good work. The surge of warmth makes another northward push allowing for a good amount of sunshine to mix down some of the excessive mid-level warmth. Our massive spring-like wave of warmth is coming however and it would be accurate to refer to it as “warm” as opposed to “mild”. December will not go down as a particularly arctic month but the coldest weather of the month will nonetheless make its appearance, brought in by a potent jet impulse Wednesday evening. Wednesday appears downright tropical. The disturbance will also bring snow showers and squalls to the northern Vermont high country just as the Wednesday ski day is winding down.

There are hints that the push of more milder air could be the catalyst for a period of light snow Saturday but that remains to be seen. This means temperatures make a push into the 50’s Tuesday and the corn horn gets blown. Friday appears quite sunny for much of the day with temperatures approaching or crossing the freezing mark but clouds in advance of the next storm system may make an appearance at some point before evening. Soaks, foot rubs, and cozy blankets can help after the fact, but in order to keep your feet warm while you’re out in the cold, you’ll want to make sure you invest in warm socks. I’ll stick with the GEM/GFS for now out of caution and a wish to refrain from going all-in on the highest snowfall forecast, but depending on the consistency of each model in the future, my preference may change.

48 hours out is typically when the models have reached a consensus, but for difficult storms like this one, the consensus can be expected tomorrow morning. The week is expected to finish on the dry but cold side with temperatures below zero Thursday and Friday morning in many places while afternoon readings are only in the single numbers Thursday and 15 on Friday. That does not, however, mean that the risk today will be zero. That said, an SPC Day 6 and 7 risk areas means that there is an unusually high amount of confidence for this event. This weekend weather producer has more subtropical juice and only a minimal amount of cold weather. Saturday’s precipitation might also not be the last of the weekend weather though it is tough to tell as of now what type of storm might follow, if at all for Sunday or Monday. Temperatures are likely to spend a chunk of the last weekend in February above freezing and this might continue into Monday and Tuesday. It would be wise to leave some leg-room for changes as we get closer to the weekend but the prevailing weather pattern is quite mild which encourages these types of storm tracks.