That’s right, persistent low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska. High pressure centered to the south of the Bering Sea and low pressure centered directly in the Bering Sea will allow for high pressure to take over the Western US. A massive ridge of high pressure and warmth, except for the closed low in the Northeast. This surface analysis chart is from October 14th, showing a strong upper level low beginning to push eastward out of the Midwest. Noting that the Arctic Oscillation was beginning its freefall into negative territory, and a substantial cold front was in tow of the storm, we were in line to receive our first big cold blast of the season. Typically, when the Arctic Oscillation is negative, the jet stream becomes very wavy and enables pockets of cold air to be flushed south to lower latitudes. The lack of cold air now could mean a lack of cold air this winter, especially given the warmer than normal Arctic temperatures.

Because we all use machines and screens to communicate, we lack that personal touch that makes relationships between humans so fascinating. Let’s use another example. This analog package pattern is a textbook example of the negative Pacific North American (PNA) index. The reason why I’m worried about what’s happened the last few weeks for this winter, is because our winter pattern is setting up right before our eyes. The Lezak Recurring Cycle appears to be setting up its new components for the 2014-2015 winter season. That’s how we ended up with such a cold winter. In a flip from last year at this time, rather than a tongue of warm water anomalies pushing east, we now see a tongue of cold water anomalies pushing east. Just like last year, but now flipped, we’re seeing the SST anomalies from the West Pacific propagate into the East Pacific. But take a look at the waters east of Japan. If you prefer to have a simple look to your fashion, but want just a tough of something a little extra, then you may want to stick with a delightful plaid!

Then you have a complete gym set up in the comfort of your own home. We then see the Polar Jet Stream pushing south into southeast Canada after having to push north in response to warm weather. Read about the latest events in our weather summaries. There are survival groups and sects from all the continents of the globe gearing up for the hugely expected cataclysmic and earth shattering events that are foretold in the predictions of Nostradamus. There are several parts that are definitely a must visit if you are coming to London for the first time. I want to analyze those first days of October, when the AO went well below normal, as the blue bar graph shows, in conjunction with a storm system that hit during this same timeframe. While many in the Midwest should be excited that October’s been a very wet month (that is, if you are a snow fan), the cold air is what I want to discuss. If you are going to carry coffee, you may want to brew some decaf; caffeinated might affect your play. As we head into an expected El Nino this winter, this sort of pattern may appear more frequently.

You can bet that this stormy pattern in the near future won’t help those warm water anomalies stay in the Gulf of Alaska. As a result, many believe this theme will persist, and will allow the warmer than normal Gulf of Alaska SST anomalies to stay put. In the Gulf of Alaska, we do still see intense warmth with those positive SST anomalies. In 12 hours (valid this evening), model guidance has a strong trough pressing into the Gulf of Alaska, something that’s likely to happen quite a bit in the future (I’ll discuss that later). The small panels show individual 500mb contour forecasts for the given forecast time, in this case set at 12 hours out. The same forecast parameter from the GFS ensembles, now valid about 5 days from today, shows another strong trough placed squarely over the Gulf of Alaska. The chart above shows a mean 500mb height anomaly forecast from the GFS ensemble members, displayed by the big panel in the top-center.