With Typhoon Usagi and newly-formed Pabuk swirling in the Pacific, it’s evident we will see some stormy times ahead in North America. Considering we are bound to see elongated high pressure in North America as a result of the positive PNA, it’s not out of the question that the elongated high pressure may spill north towards eastern Canada. Don’t be surprised to see periods of a -EPO play out; the -EPO helps out with cold weather prospects for much of the eastern half of Canada and the US. Things to consider include space, how much time they need to be spent with them and how much time you are able to give. The storm late in the month produced much flooding and runoff after very heavy rains at higher elevations. Confidence in this solution remains low due to the extended timeframe of this storm. However, since it is showing up in the first place, confidence continues to rise in a substantial storm in this timeframe.

We’ve saved the best for last: The above graphic depicts the GFS-Parallel model forecast for this storm. Here is the 5 PM forecast from the UWWRF system on Sunday. For future reference, those two parameters will show up on all model graphics we analyze here today. All models agree on the evolution of a ridge of high pressure blossoming over the Arctic Circle, which will force the tropospheric polar vortex to be displaced to lower latitudes. This is the forecast from the ECMWF, valid on the morning of the 18th. Here, we see our low pressure system in the South Plains just like the GFS. We see a storm system of minimum central pressure 1001 millibars placed just south of Chicago. The minimum pressure is about 1003 millibars, which is a rather weak storm system. Regardless, the mere presence of a storm system is re-assuring to confidence. Some guidance supports a powerful storm system, possibly bringing both accumulating snow to the Upper Midwest, and severe weather to the East/Southeast. The sub-540 geopotential height values in the Midwest tell us that a widespread accumulating snow event would likely occur, particularly in the central and northern Plains into the Upper Midwest.

With very windy and cold conditions extending across the Midwest and Great Lakes, an accumulating snow event would likely be expected in the Upper Midwest and Northern Plains. Lots of great information! Lots of rain. And with that rain there will thunderstorms. There will be records. Expense: Diet will be the biggest cost. The EPO will see a roller-coaster of positive to neutral to positive again to neutral again over the next couple of weeks. At the end of the forecast, we see re-strengthening of the negative NAO occurring. Having the vehicle looked at by a mechanic is also highly recommended, as it reduces the chances of a mechanical fault occurring at a crucial time. Despite its weakness, the mere presence of a storm on this graphic tells us there is some confidence in a storm occurring within this timeframe. Model guidance is confirming the possibility of a substantial storm in the November 22-25 timeframe.

In this graphic, valid for the evening of November 24th, we see a storm system placed on the border of northeast Illinois into northwest Indiana. Again, since this is an ensemble forecast, the storm is not as strong as individual model forecasts. We now arrive at the GFS Ensembles, which paints an interesting picture for this storm. Now we discuss about nadi astrology, it’s very famous and old astrological services . And now the really serious news. We now move on to the ECMWF model, also showing 500mb geopotential height values and SLP contours. This image shows the forecasted 500mb geopotential height values in the color shadings, with sea level pressure contours and high/low pressure demarcations superimposed. Animation of temperature anomalies at the 10-millibar level. We now progress ahead to Hour 96 of the European ensembles forecast, again looking at the 500 millibar level. Pushing ahead, we now analyze the GFS ensembles forecast, valid here for the evening of November 24th. We find a weak low pressure system over central Lake Michigan, with a minimum central pressure reading of about 1005 millibars.