Model guidance has been simulating this rise to a moderate El Nino by fall very well. Model confusion revolves around whether to allow development of strong low pressure over Greenland, which would then help chances for ridging out towards the Northeast and East Coast. These images show some possible scenarios for northwest flow severe weather outbreaks, where we would have a lobe of the polar vortex displaced in eastern Canada, with strong ridging along the west coast of North America. In that time period, we may be looking at severe weather threats displaced further west and north, with warmer weather for the East and cooler weather in the West. This post will be of the more technical variety, so there will be a summary at the bottom for those who may not know as much weather jargon as some others do. To improve weather forecasting models you must know their strengths and weaknesses. The .loadModel() must be in the new thread and image prediction (predictImage()) must take place in th new thread. Well, check out the top of the SST anomaly image. This image shows 500mb height anomalies over the Northern Hemisphere during the January 22 – January 28 period of this year.

This graphic, drawn up by Mike Ventrice, shows the sort of situation we’re experiencing with the Kelvin Wave. Looking at the SST anomaly chart, it is very clear that there is a strong Kelvin Wave present under the surface. The El Nino phenomenon is characterized by above normal sea surface temperatures, and the La Nina is shown by below normal sea surface temperatures. Along with high humidity if atmosphere temperature is high, the blood circulation increases on surface of skin and decreases in muscles and other organs. But the average person’s skin does not reflect the amount. Making dirt bike tracks is definitely very rewarding as well as being a considerable amount of fun. A limited amount of field data from the true physical system is available to inform us about the unknown inputs and also to inform us about the uncertainty that is associated with a simulation-based prediction. In case you don’t know, higher levels of potential vorticity are associated with stronger low pressure systems.

Something we are worried about has, and is still, this PV rebuilding over Alaska. Right now, we can see very little PV values over Alaska (to the up and a bit left of the white circle). In this reanalysis, we see strong ridging over the west coast of North America, producing a northwest flow situation into the East Coast, where a lobe of the polar vortex sat to the north in Canada. The ridging has shifted westward into the Bering Sea, leaving the lobe of the polar vortex to weaken and move out of the way, which then results in ridging along the East Coast. Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) events will tend to reverse the wind direction, if not at least slow it down to near zero as that warmer air pushes north into the Arctic Circle and ridging tries to take hold. New cygnets dine on water beetles, at least until they are five weeks of age. Areas along which the fault line ran were sheared, mud and water were ejected out from under the ground. In simpler terms, for example, when the Nino 4 has below-normal waters, the oranges and yellows (which signify positive correlation areas) would then experience below-average winds.

The areas shown in blue (which signify negative correlation areas) would then see stronger than normal winds. This graphic shows correlations of 200mb winds based on the Nino 4 phase. Nino region 4 is the furthest west of the four regions, as the graphic below shows. This phenomenon of warming-before-cooling has been observed well with the last few Kelvin Waves, as this chart shows. Shown above is a two-panel graphic, depicting SST anomalies on a depth by longitude chart on top, as well as a mean equatorial temperature depth-longitude chart on the bottom. As the Kelvin Wave pushes east, we see sea level anomalies rise in conjunction with the anomalous warmth. There’s a Kelvin Wave afoot. The next question becomes, will this Kelvin Wave actually make it to Ecuador and Peru? Kelvin waves are defined as ‘warm spots’ in the ocean that traverse the Equatorial Pacific, beginning near Indonesia and ending around Ecuador and Peru.