Cirrus cloud has wafted in from the Pacific this morning (see above image) – making this the biggest weather day of the past week. To allow for the aforementioned uncertainty, I have widened this to an 8-12 day band centered around May 30th, ten days after the observed graphic above. Note: This post is using a forecasting technique that, while similar to the 6-10 day storm forecasting method I was using previously on this blog, is somewhat different and subject to more uncertainty. The GFS is forecasting our system to be resting in the Gulf Coast in the early morning of the 27th. Precipitation looks to be ongoing across a wide swath of that area, with Illinois, Indiana and Missouri possibly getting snow. In this somewhat-different forecasting method, I am using a swath of eastern Asia (namely parts of China, Mongolia and Russia into Japan) to anticipate weather patterns over different parts of the United States in about a 10-day timeframe. As of this past Monday morning, an unusually-strong upper level low was observed over northeast China, with an individual disturbance rotating around the base of the low, seen here as entering western South Korea. As such, treat this forecast with a higher level of caution.

This upper level low is situated between a pair of ridges, the stronger of which is placed east of Japan and near the Aleutian Islands of Alaska. If you are going to hike with your Poodle in cold weather, invest in a pair of boots for him. There are no depressions, storms or hurricanes ongoing in the Atlantic, so we will zoom in on other features. All in all, this tropical wave looks like there is potential. What we don’t want is high shear, which would heavily limit potential for TC development. When you get the expansion of these lines, it is typically demonstrative of high pressure anomalies present in the area. Mississippi, Louisiana and other states in the same area would likely get rain. I am expecting a storm system and simultaneous influx of cooler than normal air into the contiguous United States to close out May and introduce June. A storm system is expected to cross the central United States during the May 28th – May 30th period, with cooler than normal weather following over the northern portion of the country. From there, through May up to this point, enhanced convective activity propagated eastward from the Indian Ocean, bringing the MJO through phases 3 through 8, where it now sits.

This cold also extends into southeastern Canada, but from there, warmth dominates to the north. The thunderstorms produced some showers and the heaviest of these stayed just north of the ALERT network stations – three sites on north end of network had very slight amounts of rainfall. Ridging over the Eastern Seaboard should keep that area relatively warmer to end the current month. The combination however of a much weaker ridge across eastern Canada next week and the apparent continued absence of the southern branch of the jet stream gives the middle to end of the weak a much different look. There is a tropical wave around the middle of the Atlantic ocean in between Africa and South America. Take note of how the blue rain/snow line is not pushing south in the wake of this storm system. However, as I showed above, the blue rain/snow line is still not filling south behind the system. This is the 12z GFS model forecast for the early morning hours of November 27th. This chart combines isobars, areas of high and low pressure, the blue rain/snow line, and precipitation all in one. Now, we have moved forward to the morning of November 28th, when many are just getting up.

Now, we have gone forward to the morning of November 27th, just 24 hours later. 12 hours later, we are in the afternoon of the 27th. At this point, the storm system has moved northeast and strengthened ever so slightly from 1015mb to 1014mb. Not a very significant change. Also, half or more of “property damage” are people building in risky areas. It has happened to most people at one time or another. This allows us to narrow down how many ensembles are showing what type of solution for a certain time frame. I can’t say I’m liking the GFS’ solution at the moment, because the GFS has not been as good as the ECMWF model, which we will take a look at next. If we take a look farther east, we see a bowing formation of observed precipitation, telling me that this is likely a cold front. Remember that for jeans and dark colors, these black and brown sandals look great and accentuate the rest of your outfit.

Though Neural Network is a new field, it has shown great promise in the future. The compact automaton, although only about the size of a fourth grader, represents huge possibilities for the future of robotics. Scroll down past the recipe below for our tips on how to make perfect no-bake cookies. As an alternative to the full hardtop, they also supply soft and hard covers that are perfect for tradesmen that require protection for tools and equipment that are kept in the back of the vehicle. Going back to our MJO OLR composite image earlier in this post, we see this correlating to Phase 6, also known as the warm weather phase. If they can send a person into space, and navigate them back again, a flying small car should not be impossible. Or you can easily attach an all weather television on your terrace, on your sail boat or anywhere, even while camping out. In conclusion, understanding long range weather forecast is a must while planning a trip.