11 years ago from Universe, Milky Way, Outer Arm, Sol, Earth, Western Hemisphere, North America, Illinois, Chicago. As we head into December, a quieter and warmer pattern is expected to take hold over North America, primarily in the central and western parts of the continent, including the North US, South Canada, and the Pacific Northwest. The Pacific North American index (PNA) forecast from the 12z models shows a spread in the forecasts during the time period this forecast is valid for. Pattern then looks to quiet down by Thanksgiving, with upper level convergence advecting over North America from the North Pacific. The 500mb pattern over the last week showed a dominating ridge in the Gulf of Alaska, leading to negative geopotential height anomalies in central North America. Upper-level divergence will intensify and shift east to the East Pacific over the next five days, eventually branching off into North America. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM MDT THURSDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING. The system remains out in the Pacific, meaning weather balloon data is unable to sample it, and the model forecasts are thus hindered in their accuracy.

But wood still remains a choice for heating homes during the extreme cold weather. Making the right choice of doors will keep your loved ones and valuable assets safe and you will have mental peace. All models being investigated this afternoon have timing issues, as far as placement of precipitation goes. The result..tomorrow will be cooler and cloudier–particularly in the morning–with some sunbreaks in the afternoon. An upper trough aloft has been slowly approaching and this afternoon its influence initiated the push of marine air eastward. Initiated new business intelligence module, Campaign Tracker. Keep on keepin’ on! Rhinos frequently roll in mud wallows, coating themselves with mud, which protect their skin from sunburn, insects and to keep cool in hot weather. My wind chimes are ringing and the cool breezes are extraordinarily pleasant. Notice the increase in wind speed? Or the change in wind direction? Positive zonal wind values indicate the presence of a storm system (in this case, the polar vortex), while negative zonal wind values tell of an anticyclone (high pressure system) in the vicinity. It is not often you see a storm system produce a moderate risk in December, so let’s look at the set up. This will likely allow for another risk for cyclogenesis, potentially strong, in the United States over the next week or so.

There are going to be relatives visiting the Gulf Coast who may not be familiar with the area (weather-wise), and thus may not know how to appropriately handle such a severe weather risk. Some individuals who have spent a lot of time studying the lottery, state that you should just simply choose the same numbers week in and week out. Over 600 have been canceled. This severe weather event struck over the Midwest, particularly in Iowa, Missouri, and Illinois. A positive PNA induces conditions that prefer a storm track in the Ohio Valley and Midwest, like previous ECMWF runs were showing. If such a positive PNA evolves, you are not going to see the storm be suppressed south and then go up the East Coast. A neutral NAO and negative PNA would not suppress the storm south and bring it up the coast, unless this is an anomaly situation, which it should not be. If the PNA were negative like the ECMWF is showing, high pressure would build in over the Southeast and provoke a storm track more tailored to the Plains, like we saw earlier in the month. The six principle topics below will help build a foundation in understanding some of the science behind meteorology and the weather.

In particular, the principle of coupled oscillators cannot explain how individuals flexibly adjust the timing of their actions to one another to achieve a common outcome in real time, such as when dancing together. Again, not a common sight to see in December. I won’t believe that big suppression forecast unless I see it. The forecast above is from the 12 UTC WRF-RR and shows forecast precipitation amounts through noon on Thursday. In any case, there is valuable information regarding the confidence and nature of the forecast that you can glean from the above sources. There are many sources that will give you the great horoscope of 2013 with all the precise information, sign by sign, of work, money, love and eroticism. There are early signals for a typical El Nino pattern setting up as tropical forcing shifts around. The new 12z ECMWF does now show the downward trend, but an up-and-down pattern similar to what we have outlined as the time when the vortex breaks. But substantial troughing is offshore–very reminiscent of a classic El Nino pattern. El Nino has little impact on our summer or early fall weather–so you CAN’T blame this wonderful September weather on the tropical Pacific so easily!

With respect to global weather, we do see tropical forcing located over the Central Pacific, exerting some influence on the Pacific jet stream as a jet streak pushes eastward over the Aleutian Islands. Expect a raised threat for tropical cyclone formation in the East Pacific between 11/14 – 11/22 per latest model guidance, as strong divergence will persist over the area. I have found that the timeframe between Hour 120-Hour 204 is the most turbulent time in model forecasts. The 500mb forecast from the NAM model shows high vorticity values digging into Arkansas in the late night hours of Christmas Day. The jet stream forecast going into the day after Christmas shows this strong storm system pushing down on the jet stream, bringing about very high winds, as high as 130 knots. The fact that there are such high winds aloft tells me that we will definitely have enough energy to provoke strong thunderstorms on the evening of Christmas Day.