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Cliff Mass Weather And Climate Blog

Do you see why I’m skeptical, with the GFS showing an east-based negative NAO but bringing the storm up the East Coast? In this case, an east-based negative NAO would have the ridge of high pressure (the negative NAO) to the east of Greenland. So, there you have it: Miami’s schedule is filled with teams they should beat and teams that should beat them. There will be a lot more of this in the coming years as we become more fully emerged in the bait and click world of information. A number of methods have been developed that combine energy calculations with evolutionary information through a given alignment (24-27). These methods have proven quite reliable but lack an explicit evolutionary model. It is advisable for tourists to gather adequate information regarding weather conditions before they start their journey. First, the Obama administration needs to start taking weather prediction seriously, which they obviously don’t.

Not just the big business houses but also the independent trader can smoothly start the trading business with the help of the internet and computer. Having a disaster plan can mitigate some of the hardship and dangers that are inherent in disasters. Investments in developing countries are more focused on recovery from a disaster than on the creation of adaptive capacity. The movement of the ridge to the west is indeed why troughing is seen developing along the western coast. When broadening out beyond the trough along the western coast of the continent, the ridge that is expected to send the PNA into strong positive territory is seen, now having retrograded slightly into the Gulf of Alaska. When the MJO is in Phase 4 during the month of June, positive height anomalies tend to be favored over the Gulf of Alaska into parts of the Aleutian Islands, with another area of positive height anomalies over Greenland. It appears the low level jet stream will be actively pumping humid Gulf air into the atmosphere, thus destabilizing the atmosphere itself. We are able to see how the atmosphere typically acts when the MJO is in Phase 4 for the month of June below.

The upcoming weekend will certainly see it’s share of sub-freezing temperatures but the absence of arctic air will also allow readings to climb above the freezing mark for a few hours during each of the afternoons. With the help of some sunshine on Wednesday, temperatures might again make a run at the 60-degree mark but clouds and some rain very late in the day might thwart that effort. Ensemble model guidance is in agreement that the strong ridge over Greenland (again, the negative-NAO pattern) will remain in place through at least the day 10 forecast period, as shown above by the ECMWF (European model) ensembles. Also, if you look back to the 500mb height anomaly image, you’ll see that a positive PNA is trying to form, shown by a ridge in the northeast Pacific. In west-based negative NAO’s, the Northeast can expect to see the storms the most often. I am not particularly optimistic but if the system can transfer it’s energy from the Great Lakes to the coast, it could lead to a much different outcome early next week so don’t completely tune this one out.

However, I feel that the ECMWF and the ECMWF Ensembles have the best handle on this system at the moment. A positive PNA is best for the Midwest for storms, enhancing my suspicion of the 12z GFS. So why is the GFS so different from the ECMWF? Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) phase space diagram forecast, from the ECMWF model. For a refresher on the concept of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and how to dissect a phase-space diagram, feel free to read this post from earlier. The arctic door swings open as we advance through the next week period. This system will intensify in the southern plains over the weekend and advance northeastward. In conclusion, this system remains quite a ways away. A lot can happen in 6 days however and the possibility for more snow or even base-building sleet entering this forecast period remains. A major forecast issue is then—where exactly is the low and how strong is it?

The ridge and closed low mentioned in the eastern half of North America are seen drifting eastward, with model guidance suggesting the ridge will propagate northeastward into Greenland to maximize positive 500mb height anomalies. Let’s now turn to teleconnections and oscillations to ascertain if model guidance is correct in depicting the forecast into the end of June. We begin with the snowfall forecast from the CMC (Canadian) model. Cooler weather will begin to slowly work its way back into the region Thursday; in fact, leftover moisture might result some limited snow across the high terrain while light rain falls in the valley locations. Exact locations are unknown. Yes, these are essential aspects of every kitchen, but there is more to consider. Cold weather will continue to grip the region through the 22nd but will give way to more mild weather for the last week of the month. Cold weather will, as mentioned, dominate the weekend of Dec 9-11 along with some snow and the chilly temperatures should linger through part of the work-week that follows. Heating and cooling temperatures are determined by what is comfortable for the individuals occupying the buildings.