DiCast and its descendants might be termed “machine learning” or AI, but they are relatively primitive compared to some of the machine learning architectures currently available. Private sector firms like Accuweather, Foreca, and the Weather Channel all use post-processing systems that descended from the DICast system developed at the Research Application Lab (RAL) of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). Better post-processing like DICast. They are getting better. 2. With forecasts getting more complex, detailed, and probabilistic, NWS forecasters will work with local agencies and groups to understand and use the new, more detailed guidance. And let’s be very clear, I don’t mean that NWS forecasts are getting less skillful. Here are the mean absolute errors for surface temperature for forecast sites around the U.S., comparing U.S. Typically, this would mean a chilly winter for the East US, but the arching of these contour lines extends east into the Central US, meaning high pressure would be favored over low pressure for that part of the country. High blood pressure. – Over-weight. This study explores the potential of deriving these two variables from the NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data. The upgrading of the weather stations with additional sensors was designed for easy installation with a plug-and-play interface to allow for the immediate receiving of data.

Without going into two much detail severe weather occurs this time of year in that part of the country due to strong conflicting air masses. You have a warm moist flow from the gulf of Mexico and have shots of cool air that come in on the jet stream from the west. That blue area is a dip in the jet stream which allows the colder air mass to run into the warm air ahead of it. I circled the area of concern. Severe weather will be the big concern this week in the nations mid section on Wednesday and Thursday. That’s because running water will help melt the ice faster. If you submit multiple predictions, all of them will be disqualified. The terms should clearly state the duration of time until which the property and valuables stored within the portable shelters will be continued to be protected. As a result forecasters don’t have time to take on important tasks that could greatly enhance the quality of the forecasts and how society uses them. To create these fields, a forecaster starts with model grids at coarser resolution, uses “model interpretation” and “smart” tools to combine and downscale model output to a high-resolution IFPS grid, and then makes subjective alterations using a graphical forecast editor.

Spending a lot of time on grid editing leaves far less forecaster time for more productive tasks, such as interacting with forecast users, improving very short-term forecasting (called nowcasting), highlighting problematic observations, and much more. California is dry, but much of western Washington will receive more than 4 inches and the mountains hit by as much as 10-15 inches. This blog will consider the role of human forecasters in the NWS and how the current approach to prediction is a throwback to past era. Note that the NWS Digital Forecast is the product of NWS human forecasters. In the Traditional and Low End segments the age of the product can be older. Such multi-car collisions have happened on many occasions here in Washington State and I believe that new weather and communication technology can substantially reduce their frequency. I have confirmed many of these results here in Seattle, so I believe they are reliable.

I picked three locations (Denver, Seattle, and Washington DC) to get some geographic diversity. Combine the two and if the atmospheric conditions are right you get severe weather. In this study, the temperature, precipitation and cloud cover, as well as the thermal index ‘physiologically equivalent temperature’ (PET), were used as parameters to describe more precisely the dependence of both cyclist groups on the local weather conditions. We see warmer than normal conditions prevailing across the heavy majority of the country, especially around the Midwest and Northeast regions. Lastly, we see the forecast of z200 anomalies for December 2014 from the CMC2 model. Blue is 5000ft and black is 18000ft. Looking over Oklahoma you can see how those winds are coning from different directions. There is no way NWS forecasters can edit all of them. 1. Forecasters will spend much more time nowcasting, providing a new generation of products/warnings about what is happening now and in the near future. 4. Forecasters will intervene and alter forecasts during the rare occasions when objective systems are failing. One in which models and sophisticated post-processing take over most of the daily forecasting tasks, with human forecasters supervising the forecasts and altering them when necessary.