It will be interesting to see how much snow eventually falls – assuming the progged thicknesses are close – and how cold it will get after the precip event ends. We can see much of the nation is projected to dip below 0 degrees Fahrenheit at some point during the next 16 days, with the northern Plains trying to dip below -40 degrees. Additional severe weather is possible north of the Enhanced Risk area, although with a lower reservoir of instability and relatively weaker forcing for storms, the risk is understandably downgraded to Slight for areas in the Plains and Midwest. Projected instability values off of the NAM model show figures in excess of 4000 j/kg situated from Kansas to Iowa, which should be more than enough to fire off these storms as a disturbance propagates eastward across the northern Plains. The nam (Fig. 3 – left) indicates a low center SW of Baja with strong southerly winds intruding far north into northwestern Arizona, i.e., a significant surge of moisture into the lower Colorado River Basin. However, the gfs (Fig. 4 – right) predicts a cyclone over the southern GoC that is totally separated from the circulation fields further north over northern Sonora and the U.S.

The image above shows minimum temperatures for the entire 12z GFS model run. I have taken a quick look at some of the charts and model progs this morning. The only sounding available this morning near to this area is Mazatlan, which indicates a very moist and unstable air mass with low level-easterly winds. Second, an infrared satellite image at 1230 UTC this morning (Fig. 2) shows a large area of storms and disturbed weather over and south of the southern end of the GoC. Note that a large area of CO, NM (except NE corner), KS, TX Panhandle, and OK is already under a winter storm watch. When doing laundry for a large family, nothing counts more than time-saved and money well-spent. It seems plausible that, with the movement of the dryline eastward, there will be more than enough forcing to ignite thunderstorms, particularly in the absence of a substantial cap. You can practice some mock betting and this way you will be well-versed with advantages and disadvantages. The presence of such a snow pack suggests a quick and cold start to winter may be on the way. Siberia has developed a healthy snow pack in the past two weeks, with snow now covering much of northeastern Russia.

The past two weeks have seen a rapid build of snow cover over Siberia and nearby regions of Russia. There is a proven correlation between Siberian snow cover in October and subsequent above or below normal temperatures in the following winter over North America. We can identify the placement of this event by the oranges and reds pushing north in that body of water. If you look at the Pacific, you see that monster ridge of high pressure making the jet stream shoot way north. No big spikes or drops in the jet stream. Then, in Canada, the polar vortex causes the jet stream to plummet back south. If you pick an all-air tour, you’ll fly over all this and head back to Vegas. Model guidance has this dryline diffusing somewhat during the evening hours over central Texas, which may diminish some of the impetus for severe storms, but with the main event already ongoing this does not seem to be a significant concern.

One concrete suggestion I will make: the NWS should center its model development and research in Boulder, Colorado, the de facto home of much of US NWP research. One thing I want to discuss is something I’m seeing on the GFS Ensembles two images above this sentence. Both models forecast several weak short-waves at 500 mb moving across Arziona and interacting either with increased moisture (nam with significant storms and rainfall) or residual moisture (gfs with isolated and mountain storms). The nam and gfs models forecast a strenthening cyclone at 850 mb down in this region; however, as per usual this summer, the models have very different details in their forecasts. I’ll illustrate this with the 850 mb 42-h forecasts from the nam and gfs. I’m not endorsing that 12z GFS run, but I am saying that the GFS Ensembles look suspicious to me right now. I believe that the polar vortex and cold would push further south and with greater intensity, similar to what the 12z GFS shows. I guess that I’d tend toward the gfs forecasts, given the two models’ performance during Hurricane John. The whole cold weather sequence will begin with a wave breaking event over the far northeast Pacific and into the Gulf of Alaska.

A multi-day severe weather event that began at the end of this last workweek will continue through the weekend and into the start of next workweek. It is ideal for including in your long backpacking trip or just a weekend with family. Even a layman can understand the catastrophe human beings are landing themselves in because of the breaking down of the family and the moral values in daily life. Secondly; how to choose and buy a down jacket. Stargazing is one of our favorite activities, and the outdoor fireplace I got from hubby has made this activity much more comfortable. It’s looking more likely that we will see life-threatening cold weather end the month of January and kick off the month of February. I will be tracking Siberia through October to see what else we can expect for this winter. But then if we look at the United States, we see just regular west-to-east flow. I’m not sold on the idea that an extremely meridional (wavy) flow just upstream will result in zonal (west-to-east, flat) flow here in the US.