The image above shows the GFS Ensemble mean 500mb height anomaly forecast for hour 384- the infamous fantasy land, end of the run panel. Overall, once again, it appears a wet end to September and most of October would be expected for the Upper Midwest. The Plains are projected to receive above normal precipitation, leading directly into the Midwest and Great Lakes, as well as the New England area. This kind of pattern would likely promote an overall-cooler set-up than the one we’re currently in, which will feature well above normal temperatures on Christmas Day. However, if this does verify to a certain degree, a cooler pattern may be on the horizon. In the spring, the La Nina produces a drier than normal Plains states and cooler than normal North Plains and Pacific Northwest. The ensembles are expecting ridging to build up along the west coast of North America, with troughing taking over in the Bering Sea and Arctic Circle.

West Coast-: WA is entirely dry. The Northeast then appears very wet, all in all looking like a combination of the dry scenario from the first member and wet scenario from the second member. A very dry forecast is noted in the southern Midwest, Ohio Valley, and into the Gulf Coast. But the East Coast gets washed away. Canada. A weak trough is off of our coast. A deep trough over the Gulf of Alaska is trenching Alaska, while a weak ridge is stationed over the western U.S. Here is the total precipitation predicted though Saturday at 5 AM (from the GFS model) Nothing along the U.S. Precipitation has been a bit below normal during the same period (blue is normal, red observed), by roughly .7 inches. The GFS is definitely more toned down, with only a small patch of red. More over Whatcom county. It is all about the well-known theory of atmospheric physics, which states that more moisture is held up by warmer air than colder air.

The National Weather Service forecast for the next four days is as close to ideal as imaginable (see below), with highs around 70 and lows near 50 (colder away from water). Shown above is the first member of the CFS suite, showing precipitation accumulated over the next 45 days. What we’ll do first is analyze four precipitation forecasts, each one slightly different from the other based on their initialization and model foundations, from the CFS model. This third ensemble member from the CFS once again retains a similar projection as the first two members for the next 45 days, but differs in the East. The low temperature in Tampa in June on the first day of the month averages 71 degrees and the low temperature on the last day of the month averages 74 degrees. In this forecast, the Mid-Atlantic is dry, in a similarity to the first ensemble member. This fourth member I specifically saved for last, since it appears to be most radical with its forecast in the Midwest (that should be taken as a caveat as well). For the Central US, heavy precipitation values are displaced across most of the Midwest and west-central Great Lakes, extending back into the Plains.

In this new projection, we see what appears to be a swath of wetter-than-normal conditions extending from the Southern Plains and into the Midwest, once again hitting the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes the hardest. In this forecast, we see a swath of substantial precipitation values extending from the Plains into the Upper Midwest, giving the Great Lakes some of those wet conditions as well. In the image above, we see an average of precipitation anomalies over the month of October, compiled from eight global forecasting models. In this graphic, we see a familiar trend. If you’re looking for a newer home, this trend is good news! Truly, chunky knit scarves are the only good thing about the cold weather. You all know I wouldn’t post a 384-hour graphic without good reason, so let’s dive in. Because it’s nearly identical to some of the projections we were viewing earlier in this post.

The forecast pressure pattern is also not favorable, with a low center right over us and no feed of cold air from the Fraser River Valley (see forecasts of pressure and temperatures for 10 AM below). The pattern producing this weather is really not exceptional (see upper level map below for tomorrow afternoon). A grand overview of four key teleconnections reveals this improving pattern (improving, at least in the eyes of winter weather fans). By most accounts from owners living in heavy winter areas like Alaska, the roadsters are poor winter cars, but that’s probably obvious to most prospective buyers. Nightmare on Elm Street that launched Freddy Krueger to horror hall of fame, and Jason Voorheyes slashing games in Friday the 13th are one of the example. Methods: Eligible subjects were 18 or older, had localization-related epilepsy, at least one seizure within 12 months, and were able to maintain a daily diary.