The End Of Days Is Upon Us

When these brief changes are over, the atmosphere returns to more or less its average conditions. And with so many changes in the bureaucratic structures, Congress will have to be involved. Congress has not been sufficiently attentive to the dysfunctional structures they have created and maintained. They have not created a structure to develop actionable strategic plans. The U.S. can easily regain leadership in weather prediction if we only have the will to acknowledge the current failed structures and replace them with something better. The Developmental Testbed Center (which can provide extramural support for U.S models and help evaluate the new ones, is already in Boulder). It would include a chief scientist to help organize and lead the scientific work, with a strong scientific advisory committee. The NWS has held workshops and organized all kinds gatherings to garner support, but these have led to long laundry lists, with little ability to lead to actionable, organized efforts. Bringing NCAR (also in Boulder) and NOAA together through such a center is critical, and Boulder is a far more central venue than DC for combining the nation’s modeling efforts.

According to 2012 horoscopes, you should try your possible efforts to secure shinning and successful future and provide accurate and right astrological concepts by yearly horoscope, monthly horoscope, weekly and daily horoscope. The best possible circumstance would be to bring all environmental prediction activities of NOAA into one group– research, development, operations–with one individual responsible for the whole operation. And while anomalously cold weather is possible as the vortex stationed in Canada is moved closer to the United States, I can’t foresee a massive breakdown in temperatures involving a polar vortex lobe collapsing into the United States. A short while later Katy contacted me, telling me I was no longer allowed to talk about math and that Steve concurred. And did I mention that there is no concrete strategic plan in NOAA/NWS for the development of U.S. This requires coherent planning and the coordination of the vast scientific and technical resources of the U.S.

There is insufficient computer resources to support weather prediction and weather prediction research that the nation requires. Can we do better in weather and environmental prediction, rebuilding our capabilities when we still have the resources to be the best and give the American people state-of-science forecasts? At 5:00 PM CDT, it is evident that these showers and storms may be taking on supercell characteristics, and by 8:00 PM CDT, the storms have merged into a bowing segment or multi-cellular segment. In other words, it’s making its move north into the Arctic Circle now, so it must either actually make it into the Arctic Circle, or be rejected and stay at lower latitudes, where it may then dissipate. Now, although EMC is responsible for the weather modeling, they don’t develop most of their own models. Leave responsibility for running the weather/environmental prediction models in the National Weather Service, but move all model development and testing to a new integrated entity within NOAA: The National Environmental Prediction Research and Development Center (NEPRDC).

In the 1990s, industries got to work rectifying the Sellers Model conundrum surmising Techno Sellers needed to change if they were to be successful. Some NWS EMC personnel (who are now in DC) could work as a satellite center in Boulder. Improvements in environmental prediction will only come from sustained, coordinated hard work in physics, data assimilation, and other key areas. And there is little evidence that the new global model will improve verification scores very much, since the real problems are in data assimilation, physics, ensembles, and post processing. A few years ago, there was outright tension between model developers in NOAA ESRL (Earth System Research Lab in Boulder) and the NWS EMC folks. Daytime highs wil be in the mid 40s, The next system arriving early Thursday will contain focused and heavy rain for our area. We also see a broad area of low pressure centered in Kansas, with a warm front draped across Missouri, a trough along the Oklahoma/Arkansas border, and a dry line in western Oklahoma and central Texas.

NOAA/NWS has not dealt with the central problem of poor organization, coordination and planning. But they don’t run the models–they let another group in NCEP do it (NCEP Central Operations, NCO). Decision making for new models (and the financial management) is done by different folks outside of NCEP (Office of Science Technology Integration, OSTI). Operational weather modeling is the responsibility of the Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) of the NWS National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Even better would be to create a truly national center, and bring in the NASA and DOD components–but that is a heavy lift. We are talking about combining the NWP activities and responsibilities of NWS NCEP, NWS MDL, NOAA ESRL, NOAA GFLD, the National Water Center, and NWS NCO (and others) into one group. Just vague platitudes. This is in stark contrast to the detailed planning by NOAA/NWS’s big competitors (e.g., the European Center, the UKMET office, etc), which as extensive, detailed, and coherent planning processes.