And new prediction tools, like the advancing Climate Forecast System (CFS) numerical modeling system, will progressively improve in time. They did not forecast temperature conditions to be different from climatology, but it turned out to be colder than normal. It was quite cool at sunrise, and the low temperature here at the house was 47F – so we’ll probably have a diurnal range today of around 50F. There’s not much to summarize for May. Here are the latest predictions for June, July, August for temperature and precipitation by the CPC (see below). Spatial summation is done when several weak signals are converted into a large signal. This is called wave train and reflects a large scale atmospheric wave pattern emanating out of the tropics of the central Pacific. Do not try to cram a large number of places within a small number of days. Rainfall variation is a normal phenomenon on the earth which is caused by a number of factors. Many people chose to sleep outside of their homes and thus were spared when the main earthquake indeed occurred and caused widespread destruction.

The screen wipers are used to clear the main screen form any dust. During the holiday season, be aware that holly and poinsettia are toxic to dogs so keep them well out of reach. We actually spent over five months traveling around the state that Winter, just relaxing and enjoying the weather as well as the fact that we were obviously living in a Tropical land. First, how well did the summer seasonal forecasts go during the last three summers over the Pacific Northwest? First, 2011. Left panels are for temperature, right panels precipitation. The upper panels are the official forecasts, the bottom panels are observed conditions. Earlier this month, the press was highlighting the latest update of the official National Weather Service summer forecasts, produced by the Climate Prediction Center (CPC). The Official Summer Forecasts are Out: Can You Believe Them? In data provided by the ESRL – the agency that maintains the MEI – values are provided in the format of a rolling two-month average.

Climatology is just forecasting the average conditions for a location. 100 is perfect, 0 is no skill compared to climatology. They have very little skill compared to just predicting climatological conditions. Here is a map the skill of their summer subjective forecasts compared to climatology (called the Heidke Skill Score). Negative is worst than climatology. The system is allowed to produce response for unlabelled data without any prior training. In fact, I am working with others at the UW to build a seasonal prediction capability combining high-resolution modeling with the NWS global CFS system. The new NWS Fire Weather Zones are shown below and Zone 152 is shaded orange-red to indicate a current Red Flag Warning. With a wildfire burning in the Huachuca Mountains currently (the Brown Fire, shown in photo from yesterday, credit unknown), I thought that I would respond to a comment from early in April regarding the NWS Fire Weather Zones.

Only at The Weather Centre. Using these new resources wisely, the NWS operational can jump to world leadership capability in numerical weather prediction and radically improve the products it provides to U.S. There is little doubt EMC could quickly take advantage of the increased computer resources (I have confirmed this by talking with their leadership). So my advice to you is not to take summer seasonal predictions over the Northwest very seriously. So, I’m going to take a guess. So, let’s look at what they do have. Editorial: You would think that the National Weather Service would have good verification statistics available on their web site for their long-range predictions, but as with most product verification, their offerings are weak or non-existent. Providing the public with good verification information about their forecasts should be a priority for the National Weather Service; they seem to give this task little resource and don’t maintain what they have. They have an interactive verification tool that does not work ( I have tried on several platforms).

Looking at animations of recent model runs, I have seen a clear northward trend in model forecasts, more towards the first track I mentioned in the above paragraph. The model has been fitted to data from more than 9200 stations with long runs of daily data throughout the world. The month of July also marks a high season month, where crowds are more likely, although it is during the rainy season which runs from June to August. In contrast to plant miRNAs, which usually bind nearly perfectly to their targets, animal miRNAs bind less tightly, with a few nucleotides being unbound, thus producing more complex secondary structures of miRNA/target duplexes. As more games are played, you will add these to this list of results, but we don’t need to think about that just yet. I think there will be drizzle and probably a light shower. Thank you jainismus for your insight, I think children are born artists. I just pray that a better future lies ahead for our children.