1961 – Nov. 6: 60 mph Santa Ana winds blew burning brush into the affluent Bel Air and Brentwood communities, when a bulldozer working at a construction site struck a rock and caused a spark that ignited the dry brush. Signs are pointing to ridging in the Southeast this winter, and that should enable a rather dry set-up to be provoked in that region of the nation. Depending on if the negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation is still present by the first month of 2014, this ridging in the Southeast could be enhanced, and the overall storm track would be affected. I have taken into account other things, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Next, let’s take a gander at a pretty special tool that can be used for forecasting the winter Arctic Oscillation, titled the Snow Advance Index (SAI). They will not be covered in this forecast, as the PDO, AMO status has not changed since my Official winter forecast.

This concludes The Weather Centre’s Final 2013-2014 Winter Forecast, and thus concludes the release of winter forecasts for this year. The bottom line is that there is no reason to expect an anomalous winter in our area. If the news says that there is heavy flood in your area or at your school, then it’s better to stay home. Travel may be hazardous at times due to heavy and blowing snow reducing visibilities and rapidly changing conditions. Due to low confidence in conjunction with the precipitation forecast, and because the snowfall pattern will follow the storm track (which is somewhat TBD), the snowfall description will be grouped into a three month December-January-February description. That intense cold air mass over the Arctic Circle will be intensifying from now until the 10 day forecast, which is shown above. Lakes Michigan, Superior and Huron will be affected the greatest, so long as the current outlooks for the core of the cold to stay in that region locks in place. The Plains region into the Midwest and Great Lakes should see the brunt of the cold in January, with slight ridging in the Southeast offering the opportunity for warmer than normal temperatures in that area.

The ridging in the Southeast, aided by what should be a stormy Bering Sea, ought to outline a swath of above normal precipitation that could stretch from the Oklahoma panhandle to western New York. Coal use is declining sharply, especially in the United States and Western Europe, according to an analysis by Carbon Brief. Cold weather should be available for use but I don’t expect it to dominate the entire eastern United States. Using the Typhoon Rule, which states weather phenomena in Japan is reciprocated in the United States about 6-10 days later, we might expect a storm system to trek across the US in a December 2-6 timeframe. In this book Peter Spirtes, Clark Glymour, and Richard Scheines address these questions using the formalism of Bayes networks, with results that have been applied in diverse areas of research in the social, behavioral, and physical sciences. So if winds over 30 mph are being forecast and you want to minimize your risks (still very small), you would be wise to keep away from heavily wooded areas. Taking into account all of that information, and then some, here is the Final 2013-2014 Winter Forecast.

As I see fit, adjustments will be made and the changes will be published, but the Final winter forecast usually heralds the end of the publishing of major winter forecasts. 15-20 day point. This means the LRC, if all goes as is expected, will allow the Central US to experience some frigid weather this winter as a direct result of the LRC. As the QBO transitions to Phase 7, and the LRC goes into its next cycle, the temperature trend ought to be on a decisive colder path. What happens if the market goes against his position, where will he exit? Please use it to totally clear off your car or someone will stick it in a place you’d probably rather not have it. You have just finished assembling your latest model car. The Northwest Weather Workshop, the big regional meeting on Northwest weather will take place in Seattle on March 4-5, 2016. At this meeting we talk about the latest advances in understanding our local weather. Granted, it still pulls data from local stations.

Misinterpretation of data may occur. Methods discussed include variational techniques, smoothing splines, Kriging, optimal interpolation, successive corrections, constrained initialization, the Kalman‐Bucy filter, and adjoint model data assimilation. Cold weather will also continue with temperatures well below freezing (high’s only in the teens Thursday) and brisk winds. Flurries should continue into a good part of Thursday and some additional snow should greet skiers by the time the lifts open. This is the type of storm that can be enjoyed for several days and it’s a good thing because our snow prospects have probably been downgraded as of the time of this update. Hence, continued changes in weather over time can alter the climate of an area, such as what the NRCC has found is happening in the Northeastern US. We found the association between GSRH and mortality was reduced among studies that adjusted for co‐morbid illness, particularly among the subgroup of persons reporting “poor” health.