Preparing For Bad Weather

The pattern in a negative PNA state is shown above, and we can see how cold and stormy weather invades the West US as a result of persistent high pressure in the Gulf of Alaska. Cooler air will still result, but extreme cold should not be expected right now. This is a sign for cooler than normal weather, and as we saw earlier in this post, ensemble guidance believes a brief shot of colder weather will hit the Central and East US. In those cases, model guidance lowers heights in the East US too much, leading to a storm track too far to the south. Take a look at this side-by-side forecast from the 0z GFS model on the left, and the 12z GFS on the right, both forecasting 500mb vorticity values for the morning of February 4th, when the storm is just beginning. As the map shows, a very large area of high vorticity values was observed approaching New Jersey at the time of the earthquake. The image above shows the surface condition map on the left and 500mb map on the right from December 14, 2013. If w extrapolate that date out 57 days, we come to the February 7th mark.

Clearly, improvements in sensor technology and communication systems will allow transportation agencies to more closely monitor the condition of the surface transportation system. When it comes to insulating your garage door, you will more likely need an insulation kit. By the time this potential storm system comes around, the Pacific-North American index looks to be well into its negative territory. When it comes to rain, majority of the rain falls during winter months i.e. in between May- August. While the severe drought observed just a year or two ago in the southern Plains has been alleviated to some point, it would only take one more winter of below normal precipitation to bring back some effects of that drought. The Negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) appears likely as we head into this winter. We see on the top panel that ensemble members from the Climate Prediction Center want the PNA to plummet as we head into February. No matter how difficult the task, successes over the last few years have clearly paved the way for ab initio prediction of protein function. How have we already seen this model bias? Looking at the metrics in isolation can lead to an incomplete performance evaluation of the model especially in terms of the value added by the predictive model.

In reality, high pressure systems in the East should be stronger than what they are projected to be on model guidance, leading to a more northern storm track. Ensemble forecasts see strong ridging building over Alaska and extreme northwest Canada, extending from northern Siberia all the way across the Arctic Circle to the waters immediately south of Greenland. Another item rooting for this northern storm track is the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Now that we’ve got the trio of long range predictors backing this storm potential, confidence is rather high on the idea of a storm system happening around February 4-6. Now, we can start to outline a possible track. That is why any fan of any sport should make it a point that they are very much familiar with what is happening in their particular favorite sport. This original source gets the information first, therefore it is a great starting point.

Your boldness can source you to a lot of powerful and development within the state of affairs during which you suffered slight hiccups last year. All things are connected at Source. Choosing the right career path is one of the most important things in life. Based on the pattern I’m seeing to start February, I’m thinking a storm track similar to the one this system took in mid-December could very well be in the cards. While I won’t discuss the EPO in this post, that trough in the Gulf of Alaska is what will return our pattern to a more seasonal, and possibly warmer than normal pattern after this brief change to chillier temperatures. Note the strong trough modeled over the Gulf of Alaska- this will maintain a positive phase of the East Pacific Oscillation (EPO). It’s important to note that the tropospheric polar vortex will not enter the United States, it will stay well north of the Canada/US border. It is important to note that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation is not the sole driver of weather; many other variables go into the equation of a seasonal temperature and precipitation pattern.

That trough will keep the pattern progressive, which means the ridge that forms over the West US as a result (the positive PNA indicator) will likely drift east and spread warmer weather east. By January 15th, the pattern is progressive enough so that the piece of the tropospheric polar vortex shifts east into eastern Canada. Again, I cannot emphasize enough the fact that the PDO does not decide the entire seasonal trend- many other large and smaller-scale variables go into a seasonal weather pattern. J/KG OF MLCAPE. DMGG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY. The region is known for awe- inspiring and snow clad mountain ranges, a spectacular terrain of lush green forests, breathtaking scenic beauty, large vineyards and orchards, and rugged grandeur. For precipitation, the negative PDO brings about a decidedly below normal trend in the Gulf Coast region and into the Southeast. When the AO is said to be negative (-AO), geopotential height anomalies over the upper latitudes are higher than normal.