The British Isles for instance lying on the western edge of Europe, with the jet stream taking aim from across the Atlantic and the Gulf Stream conveying warm air to our shores, is much more difficult to measure. I tried to do some homework on this and found some good work on its relationship to tropical activity in the Pacific and Atlantic. Contrary to popular belief it is not only those that work in direct sunlight that are at risk from such ailments, those who work inside can also be affected. Variance and Standard Deviation both are indicators of risk or uncertainty. The above map shows 500mb winds for the time period that we are watching. The presence of such strong winds indicates that a strong low pressure system is in the area. In October the total area of snow and ice across the Northern Hemisphere was over 20 millions of square km.

And we go to the expanse of ice and snow that earned itself a headline in the headline. I have been indeed very impressed this year with the increases in snow and ice this autumn. If we compare the precipitation chart to this thickness chart, we see that the air mass behind the Nor’easter would appear to be favorable for some snow. In the wake of Sandy, another Nor’easter is projected to develop in the next 5-10 days. Above normal temperatures are found in the entire East US, where anomalies are as high as 3 degrees above normal. I don’t really like this forecast because we are about to commence a West-Based El Nino as seen in today’s post (click here), and in a West-Based El Nino, you find a warm West US and cool East US. Considering the month of October has been in a negative NAO and Siberia is above normal in snowfall, I disagree with this forecast. If you see the warmer than normal water anomalies in the upper right part of the image, you are seeing a negative NAO set-up.

As for temperatures, a below normal swath of temperatures is found across the Northwest and Northern Plains, while a warmer than normal forecast includes the Plains and Southeast. But the future of forecasting is inherently probabilistic, based on many model forecasts (called an ensemble forecast). Knowing in advance about the upcoming happiness will be made your happiness double, but the knowledge of any future bad situation helps you be prepared for it so that it does not affect you adversely. High-elevation areas will be most susceptible of significant accumulations and slippery roadways. A business can incorporate an attractive creative using vibrant colour, the right message and glossy paper that will exuberate the ethos and the personality of the brand. I ended up using 1965, 1968 and 2009 for my analog years, and the first image shown above details 500 millibar height anomalies for March through June, essentially the main months of the severe weather season. U.S. Numerical Weather Prediction: Darkest Before the Dawn?

Good weather to keep the fire danger down. But, will this actually put down some of the whit stuff? Storms will continue to be on the increase early today in Western Texas and Western Oklahoma. The image above shows the GFS Ensemble 500mb height anomaly forecast for February 17th over the western Pacific. This is a thickness forecast at the 1000-500mb level. Heart rate training can be a useful tool, if based on a good estimate of what’s a valid intensity level for you. They may need to do a detox first of all potential offenders so they can start with a clean slate. I’m not sure we can. Notice the abundance of warm weather across the Midwest, Plains and East US, with well-below-normal temperatures across the West US. This commonly gives the East cool weather. A negatively tilted storm typically includes more gusto in that it provides more severe weather potential in the summer, and thus heavier precipitation potential in the winter. However, models have been known to take a cold bias in the fall, and thus my confidence in such a favorable environment for snow deteriorates. The next forecast of precipitation (top) and temperatures (bottom) comes from the GFDL model, commonly known as one of the hurricane models.

I can’t say I trust this forecast. However, because the LRC has not taken storms along this path too much, I can’t say I’m too confident in it. However, when it comes down to it, the El Nino is one of dozens of factors for this winter. We ended up deciding to show the one that seemed the closest to the radar itself, which would be where the most accurate information would be. This classification system is particularly useful for analyzing sector funds that invest their assets in a given sector like information technology or industry group like computer hardware. The specialized radar system The Weather Centre uses collects raw data from the radar- direct from the source, so to say. This isn’t too interesting to me, and I can’t really say I believe it. And I’m trying to beat him.” Prather and Zhao say the rivalry is friendly. This ENSO event has more recently turned into a more significant event as sea surface temperatures in the critical regions of the tropcial pacific have warmed to 1.7 C above what is considered normal.