Its is not too common to have back to back months with temps this cold compared to averages. In fact, we might have to be on the lookout for snow later this weekend. One model’s representation might show heavy snow for the Midwest and Great Lakes. Going back to the GFS ensemble image above, approximately 30% of ensemble members’ forecasts for this timeframe show a solution like the one above. The ‘cluster’ method combines these similar forecasts, and does the same with other, like forecasts into ‘clusters’ of ensemble members. We see what are interpreted to be slightly above normal height anomalies, but if this forecast verifies, you’ll see these anomalies increase to more extreme values as confidence among all ensemble members increases. 1.45 trillion and killed more than 10,000 people. More I information can be revealed because of high degrees of freedom. Reliability-There are five main things that can occur to prevent your product from arriving at the location to which it was shipped as expected: wrong address, damage, storms, mishandling, and duplicate contact information.

After looking at everything I can tell you I cannot find the evidence to support this whole winter will be a bust. I do not want to bore everyone with the details behind the QBO but basically there is evidence that it will weaken over the next few weeks. Looking at the north Pacific, we see quite a few contours with pink shading stretching from Japan all the way into the Gulf of Alaska. The mortgage loan is treated the same way a site built is. The same sort of thing transpired in the spring and summer of 2018, and sure enough, temperatures at this level of the atmosphere clung tight to near- or new-record-low temperatures well into the fall. What you see above is a ‘cluster’ forecast from the GFS ensembles, valid on November 26th (technically the evening of the 25th in our time zones), forecasting precipitation and sea level pressure values over North America. The image below shows one level of the stratosphere. The stratosphere is now under the process of warming and that warming is projected to split the polar vortex. The warm colors represent the warming that is putting stress on the polar vortex causing it to split into two.

These two packages were selected because both use the EMMA algorithm, while TASSEL also implements the CMLM approach with P3D. For example in the image above the ensembles cluster in two solutions off the Pacific NW coast of the U.S. But for a forecast 324 hours out, about a third of the ensembles showing this sort of solution isn’t a bad thing to see if you’re hoping for snow in the Central US. This solution means a very strong storm would push north and east across the Midwest, like that positive PNA pattern may induce. 20 ensemble members, valid on November 26th. Let’s first begin with the positive height anomalies in the West US into British Columbia. In a positive PNA pattern, ridging in the West forces the jet stream south. This should mean that the pacific jet relaxes a little. Secondly, a global wind pattern at the equator called the QBO was too strong causing the pacific jet stream become too powerful and prevent the polar jet from sinking south and giving our region cold air.

Here, cool colors denote stormy and cold weather, while warm colors depict mild and generally quiet weather. As the chart shows here, the massive storm bottomed out at 924 millibars. Without getting too complicated here, the weather pattern had to reload for December. PNA) pattern to set up. For one, the pattern was “reloading” after the very cold November we had. As of now, there is no way to determine which areas may be hit by the potential storm system, and who may be affected by the cold weather. The image above may seem confusing, but it’s not that difficult to interpret once you get a feel for it. Forecast low temperatures and weather are found in the map above (usually occurs in the morning). Moving on to the next graphic, we find the GFS-Parallel model forecast for November 17th, again forecasting 500mb height anomalies. The image above shows the ECMWF model’s forecast of 500mb geopotential height anomalies over the West Pacific. Image below is valid for Thursday and shows temps at 5k feet compared to averages. No secret it was very cold compared to averages.