5. Cost-effective- We all have limited budgets, especially when it comes to maintenance of the exteriors as well as interiors of a home. A second weak trough comes through early Friday, leaving that day with scattered showers and a few sun breaks. When it comes to choosing a pair of gloves for winter riding you should look for the kind that will warm your hands. This is a forecast for December 19th, and we see two things happening here: a pair of storm systems in New England, as well as a low pressure system beginning to emerge from the Rocky Mountains. Above is the ECMWF’s 500mb height anomaly forecast for the morning of December 21st (Oddly enough, the day the world is predicted to end). Do not give up in this world of craziness. Meanwhile, give it some consideration. The bar charts take into consideration the time factor. Take them a lot. It’s not necessarily a good thing to receive a lot of energy. But lets get one thing straight–June is typically NOT a good month west of the Cascades.

Here’s the thing that really shocks me, but not in the way you think. This is what shocks me: the nature that this storm system takes. The best weather in the nation takes hold for roughly 2-3 months. This is the American weather service’s GFS model, a forecasting model that is always in a tight race with the ECMWF to see which is better. Before we move on to the GFS model, the ECMWF did show some snowfall in the WI/MI regions from this system, on the order of several inches at most. Our results show that understanding how species respond to weather conditions over short- and medium-term temporal scales is essential for quantifying species climatic limits. The cool colors show lowered pressures (indicative of a storm system), and warmer colors show raised pressures, which typically show a quieter pattern. Now, on the morning of December 22nd, we see our system has shifted into the Northeast, with a minimum pressure nearing 980 millibars.

Moving into the early morning of December 21st, we see the storm system has now entered the East Great Lakes with a minimum pressure 993 millibars. Our system is that one emerging from the Rockies, with a central pressure of 993 millibars, meaning it is a fairly strong storm. Our Southeast ridge is present, meaning the East Coast isn’t so likely to see this storm. The pattern that was ongoing when this system emerged from the Rockies was a negative PNA, meaning that the system goes into the Plains or into the Deep South. As I said above, the system will leave the Rockies in the midst of a brief PNA phase change, from negative to positive. Not really anything significant to note at this time other than a progressive negative PNA pattern showing up, something likely to change as this system moves east. I do not expect any big weather events for the East Coast thorough at least mid-month where the jet stream may become more amplified. 24 hours later, we see our system has now moved into the Midwest, pushed in that direction by the Southeast ridge being shown to the east of Florida. We see that dual storm system departing, as well as a weak high pressure system in the Southeast.

We now see a high pressure system in the West US and the Rockies. Check out that incredible pressure gradient in the Midwest. Leave a dish with fresh water in it out in your garden for the birds, and check it on really cold mornings to make sure it hasn’t turned to ice. As this storm system moves into the Great Lakes, if the GFS verifies, we could see a nasty cold outbreak across the Plains, Midwest, Great Lakes and Ohio Valley if cold air is indeed available. In fact, GFS physics doesn’t work well at any resolution. Gennaro Gattuso has taken over Napoli, and if his work at Milan is anything to go by, we’re going to watch a cautious, defensive Partenopei side attempt to grind through 180 minutes with Lionel Messi and nick it. Here’s what I think will be crucial in determining if the ECMWF will work. Know the stakes that are worth and which will benefit you.