The mountains standing in the way of this air experience abundant snow and rain on their windward side whereas the opposite side sees the air eventually become cold fronts. The island has little variation in temperatures throughout the year, but strong peaks and valleys with rain. I am a little disappointed I didn’t have better foresight to weight some of these factors a little more. It would be more bullish if price falls below current lows and form a bullish divergence on the RSI and bounce up. I won’t believe much in the result of the prediction and even the crypto price analysis knew that the probability of their prediction to happen is narrow because of the market stance (volatility in nature). The main tool used by meteorologists to predict the nature of the weather months ahead is the correlation of the temperature of the tropical Pacific ocean surface and the atmospheric circulation around the globe.

Thus, I like to wait until late September: by this time we can have high confidence that we have a handle on the general nature of El Nino/La Nina for the winter months. As a result, the general idea is that more progressive flow can be expected as we round out February, which should be able to moderate any cold blasts near the end of the month. The warmth from the upwelling is already at the surface in the Central Pacific, and this could be setting up a more El Nino-like pattern. Anomalies show the ‘warm part’, the upwelling phase of a Kelvin wave moving eastward at a depth of about 100 to 200 meters. Short range projections show very cold temperatures slamming much of the nation, hitting the northern Ohio Valley and Northeast very hard in particular. At this point in time, we would expect this winter to be an El Nino one, simply on the basis of persistence—since it takes a while for the ocean temperatures to shift. In springs with an El Nino, temperatures in the North US will generally be warmer than normal, while the opposite scenario plays out in the South, with colder than normal temperatures.

Same wimpy, marginal El Nino, and on the verge of being a La Nada year. If the anomaly is between plus or minor .5C of normal then we are in a neutral or “La Nada” year. 2008 is a great year for Pig people to engage in sexual activities. Furthermore, the great weather killer around here is not falling trees in parks, but car accidents during icy conditions or heavy rainfall. This sort of pattern allows for sustained northwest flow (winds out of the northwest) in the Central US, and this is well shown by the strong upper level low buckling south into the Great Lakes. Back to Thursday night, lower level winds look to be roaring just southeast of the storm center, as this forecast 700mb wind speed chart shows. If we match the positioning of these anomalies to the eight phases of the Madden Julian Oscillation, we can expect the emergence of a Phase 3 or Phase 4 event, as the composite chart below shows.

These lower level winds should act to strengthen the lower level jet stream, shown well on that 700mb chart above, which will then act with the rest of the environment to provoke this severe weather event. The city had been shut down overnight–travel banned on major roadways, mass transportation systems (e.g., subways) closed, schools and businesses closed–and all for a minor snow event! El Nino years tend to produce Northwest winters that are warmer than normal, drier than normal, with less than normal mountain snowpack and a lower probability of lowland snow. Obviously, last year, our Northern Midwest folks had less than average snow and a bit of warmth. This method of persistence forecasting tends to work well, particularly when the pattern seems to ‘lock in’ to a certain temperature alignment; in this case, a cold Central and East US, with warmth in the West. Genetically destined for greatness, Eli Manning is the X factor: if he plays well, the Giants will be good, if he plays poorly, the Giants will be watching the playoffs from their living room couch. Well, it appears that will be the same old story for March and this brief warm up will prob not occur either early next week.