The LRC was developed by meteorologist Gary Lezak, and discusses the idea that weather patterns which develop in October leave a ‘footprint’ of sorts that is repeated in a regular interval, between 40-60 days through the winter and following spring. The image above shows snow cover anomalies over the Northern Hemisphere on October 19th. This is the latest we can get these charts, as data outages have lost snow cover records from October 20th to present day. Equally impressive is the latest infrared satellite image (Friday AM). The latest radar image from Vandenberg AFB shows extensive moderate rain over the region, with the yellow/orange areas being the most intense. The latest weather radar imagery shows the snow, but this is probably not an accurate rendition of the true state of affairs. The above image shows anomalies of the October Pattern Index over the last several days, since the start of October. In other words, the weather patterns that develop in October repeat themselves for the better chunk of the next year. Here in western WA the weather story the next few days will be dry, cold and windy. Storm systems will continue to be deposited in the Western U.S., which will lead to a ridge to build in the East U.S.

Very cold air is over BC and eastern WA, with simply cold air over western WA and NW Oregon. My worry is that this upper level low will end up being another piece of the polar vortex, like we saw last winter, that might push south and bring intense cold back once or twice through the coming winter. In Washington, Walla Walla will get a piece of it, but the real action will be south of Salem. Everything is normal and there is no talk of there being any real threat to property in the area. By the time it is over, Oregon will have a normal snowpack. The weather is changing and it is time to stock up with the best waterless car wash products and detailing supplies. This is the best 37 inch LCD TV you’ll see for quite a while and it is well worth the higher price point.

In sum, while there are model discrepancies to be worked out, the MJO could very well be in a very supportive phase for this outlook of colder than normal weather at the end of the year. You can buy one of countless rain measurement instruments on the market, and in many cases normal tools are good. You see that some of the differences from normal (the anomalies) exceed 9F! FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. The tropical cyclone is observed here making landfall into eastern Louisiana, close to Mississippi. Something I’ve discussed on here more than a few times is the concept of the Lezak Recurring Cycle, or LRC. Here is last nights UW WRF model forecast for total snowfall for the 48 h ending 4 PM Tuesday. A six-hour forecast of sea level pressure and low-level (2500 ft) temperatures for 10 AM today predicts the low center will be over the southern Oregon Cascades at 10 AM ( see below).

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MINNESOTA NORTHERN AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 955 AM UNTIL 500 PM CDT. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 90 MILES WEST OF DEVILS LAKE NORTH DAKOTA TO 20 MILES NORTHEAST OF BEMIDJI MINNESOTA. The National Weather Service has a flood warning out for the Santa Barbara area and a flash flood watch extending down the coast. Regardless, we can see the massive swath of above-normal snow cover extending across Eurasia, as the blues show. Tarp: Tarps can be used to cover then tent from the rain, or even protect the bottom of the tent from getting damp. Then I rank the animals from the most lucky to the least lucky. This tells us with overwhelming certainty (or at least as much certainty as we can have at this point) that the coming winter’s Arctic Oscillation will be negative, and this is backed up by the aforementioned SAI discussion. The explanation page of the OPI tells of the index’s incredible accuracy, around 90%, of being able to predict the December-January-February Arctic Oscillation.

Gloomy weather is not the only culprit however, people who enjoy being outdoors may find themselves clock watching on a beautiful sunny day as they find themselves wishing they were outside. Carrasco, who made history with her 2018 SSP300 title win, completed seven laps aboard five-time WSBK champion Rea’s ZX10-RR at the Spanish circuit, having the track to herself for an hour before the start of Thursday’s official running. The start was not smooth for them, but they recovered quickly. Milder air on the first Sunday of December brought the powder-fest to an end temporarily, but winter re-established itself across the northeast and the ensuing 17 days featured a near uninterrupted stretch of sub-freezing temperatures. We can apply this to seasonal weather trends in the coming winter. That same perspective would also suggest that the weather failures of the current week would rid our system of such occurrences for the rest of the month.