There is always the element of free choice that even any individual might not be absolutely certain as to the path he would take when faced with a certain situation where he has to make a decision. Free A/C Tuneup: Our Tune-Up service is one-of-a-kind and a great way to extend the life of your A/C while reducing your cooling costs. While viewing the chart, it quickly becomes evident that the QBO does not impose as strong an effect on conditions at the surface as oscillations like ENSO and the PDO do. Figure 32, as shown above, depicts the correlation between surface temperatures and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation phase over the December-January-February period. Now, think about what happens if the winds in the stratosphere over the Equator strengthen, as happens in a positive QBO. 0.40. Compared to some of the earlier correlation values we observed, this is a pretty formidable correlation, indicates that the AMO does seem to wield some influence on the stratosphere.

While the correlations between precipitation and the QBO are more diverse across the country, they are only diverse in the sign of the correlation, and not the magnitude. The next relationship I’d like to examine involves another correlation, but also with a twist like we used in the QBO portion. In Figure 35, we see another correlation graphic at the 50-millibar level regarding geopotential heights, but now with a twist. It’s worth briefly explaining what the Arctic Oscillation is before delving into the correlation graphic. In Figure 39, below, I have attached a correlation between 50-millibar geopotential heights during the December-January-February period and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) index from five months prior (July-August-September). The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation is currently in its positive phase, and is expected to remain in its positive phase – albeit to a weaker magnitude – moving into the winter. But let’s suppose the QBO weakens faster than we expect, and we arrive in the winter season with a QBO stuck at nearly zero. The point of examining recent trends isn’t to try and anticipate how the stratosphere will act during the winter – that’s dependent on the number of stratospheric warming events during the season (a number that can be zero).

Instead, this is more relevant for the late fall and early winter period, to try and establish what kind of shape the stratospheric polar vortex will be in as winter begins. The more diligent you are in implementing these simple, all natural, steps, the higher the probability of your dream of choosing the gender of your next baby will come true! Depending on where you purchase your rod and reel it may come already assembled or it may be necessary that you assemble it your self. Cancun weather in May through September is the warmest time to visit when the average high temperature exceeds 90 degrees each month — peaking at 92.5 in August. Weather is the CURRENT condition of temperature, pressure, relative humidity and rainfall at a particular place and it can deviate considerable from the long term average described above. At its core, a low-pressure system is exactly what the name implies: an area of low pressure relative to its surroundings.

Temps will be in the low 70s over the weekend. At the 1-millibar level, it isn’t just the level of oxygen that’s remarkably low. The same sort of thing transpired in the spring and summer of 2018, and sure enough, temperatures at this level of the atmosphere clung tight to near- or new-record-low temperatures well into the fall. December-January-February period and the AMO during the same three-month period. Figure 33, shown just above, shows the correlation between precipitation and the QBO for the same DJF timeframe. Taking the graphic as seen, a positive QBO would appear to most strongly encourage above-normal precipitation near the Front Range of the Rockies, in the Upper Midwest, and in western New York. As the graphic also shows, however, this did not condemn the upper stratosphere to far-below-normal temperatures throughout the winter. The graphic yields an interesting result. In my opinion, all this is going to do is cut out the little guy and make it easier for big companies to email the hell out of the rest of us.

A pizza delivery guy saw them and couldn’t believe anyone was dorky enough to actually care about and collect wheaties boxes. Why should we care? Looking to make some money? A question you might be posing is ‘How can some strong winds at the Equator make the stratospheric polar vortex stronger? When fall rolled around last year, stratospheric temperatures at this level remained around average, only starting to move more towards below-average values moving into November. I have made some annotations on the graphic, most importantly being the positive zonal winds (“westerlies”, from the west) at the Equator from about the 20 millibar level to nearly the 100 millibar level. The jet stream runs west-to-east, of course, sits at the 200-millibar level of the atmosphere, and generally meanders around the 40 degree N line of latitude. Nice warm weather, beautiful atmosphere, warm sun beating down on you while your at the beach with a nice cold drink in hand. While temperatures are setting fresh record lows at the top of the stratosphere, this would be far more noteworthy if it were occurring at the lower levels of the stratosphere. QBO) while negative zonal winds (-QBO) are in white.