For Now I’m Keeping It Simple

This section will focus on the Northern Pacific. In the event of a neutral-ENSO winter, it appears cooler than normal temperatures are more likely than warmer temperatures, with the coldest anomalies most likely to be maximized in the upper Midwest and northern Plains. Figure 14, above, shows 500-millibar geopotential height anomalies over the Northern Hemisphere in the same years as outlined in Figures 12 and 13, as well as over the same three-month window. The July 15th – July 21st OLR averages show enhanced convection broadly in the vicinity of Tahiti, with subsidence north of Darwin near Papua New Guinea as well as just northwest of Ecuador. While the actual definition and mechanics behind it are slightly more complex, for our purposes we can simplify OLR to know that negative values indicate the presence of enhanced convection, while positive values indicate the presence of suppressed convection. This is a feature most commonly seen in El Nino events, typically produced by convection over Tahiti creating divergence aloft.

However, rather than surface convergence occurring over Darwin, it now occurs over Tahiti. When it spreads out west, it then sinks somewhere over Darwin, and then starts traveling along the surface again – but this time, from west-to-east. The trend then shifts back upward heading into the late fall months, but a recovery in the El Nino currently seems unlikely, with the average of these models still staying in neutral-ENSO territory. Then there is the USMC experience when they first tried to use the Harrier. Remember how I said that air high up in the troposphere, transported there from the surface by convection, had to spread out because it could no longer rise and had no room to immediately sink? In summary, we are currently in a weak El Nino environment, as per both sea surface temperatures and signals from the atmospheric pattern. In a positive PDO, sea surface temperatures along the coast in the Gulf of Alaska down to the coast of California are above normal, with positive SSTAs extending into the Equatorial Pacific.

The NWS predicts that a “plume of moisture” will enter California on Saturday and continue through the weekend, which will lead to rain at lower elevations and snow in higher elevations. On one hand, below-normal SSTAs west of Baja California that try and curve southwestward near the -130 degree line of longitude would typically signal a -PDO. However, such below-normal anomalies don’t extend into the waters just west of Canada and into the shoreside Gulf of Alaska region. A ridge positioned over the Bering Sea is identified as the negative phase of the West Pacific Oscillation (WPO), which results in cooler than normal weather over the eastern two-thirds of the United States. Pressure from a new surge of refugees results in street protests and riots in France, Germany, Sweden, and Austria. The meta server translates the results obtained from remote services into uniform format, which are consequently used to request a jury prediction from a remote consensus server Pcons. In genetic screening, the vital aspects of justice include equitable access to genetic screening services for every socioeconomic, ethnic and geographic community, as well as proper allocation of scarce resources.

Thank you Dianna, using natural materials helps inspire creativity, as well as help save money. Per the figure, neutral-ENSO winters have historically featured high pressure ridges in the Bering Sea, as well as one positioned squarely over Greenland. Similarly, a ridge over Greenland signals the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which tends to buckle the jet stream south and provide colder weather for the Central and (especially) East U.S. Now we’ve got surface winds in the eastern Pacific going to the west, and surface winds in the western Pacific going to the east. With regards to surface winds, westward flow is seen from the Gulf of Alaska towards East Asia, while surface winds are southbound just offshore western Canada and western U.S. We begin with a seven-day average of surface winds, as shown in Figure 8 above. Initially things are the same as a La Nina, with surface winds going from east-to-west from the eastern Equatorial Pacific.

The “Calculated 2019 Opponent Defense Score” column does the same for the kicker’s opponent. However, forecast models anticipate the El Nino will weaken into the fall, and neutral-ENSO conditions appear probable for this winter season. By September, all models included have the Nino 3.4 region in Neutral-ENSO territory, with one model even predicting a slight La Nina in that month. Within the graphic as shown in Figure 11, these models agree on the Nino 3.4 region continuing to cool down, albeit to varying degrees, through the fall months. Figure 11: Multi-model ensemble forecast of SSTAs in the Nino 3.4 region through January 2020 (CPC). As of July 11th, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) branch determined that an El Nino Advisory was warranted, indicating that an El Nino is currently ongoing. But neither weather nor climate pays the slightest attention to what policy-makers are doing. In addition, a neutral-ENSO winter may set up a pattern very favorable for intense cold across wide swaths of the country (mainly in the eastern two-thirds) as disruptions to the tropospheric and stratospheric polar vortices are seen as more likely.